U.S. immigration attorneys and regional centers are cautiously optimistic about the evolving landscape of the EB-5 visa program in 2025.
They project a dynamic environment influenced by political shifts and market trends, mainly due to anticipated restrictions on U.S. immigration under the Trump Administration. Many also agree that the ongoing interest in investing in the U.S. through the EB-5 program will likely continue and increase next year.
Trump Administration’s approach to immigration might impact the program
“AIIA believes that the most salient issue facing the EB-5 program and its community is the effect of the incoming Trump Administration,” says Yiran Cheng, Head of Communications at AIIA. “On the one hand, the administration’s proposed policies of clamping down on other employment-based immigration pathways, such as EB-2 or EB-3 and the mass deportation of illegal immigrants (which will force developers to find cheaper financing to compensate for the labor cost) will be most likely to popularize the EB-5 program. On the other hand, whether the Trump administration’s animosity towards immigration will negatively affect the [U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services] USCIS’s and [Department of Homeland Security] DHS’s processing and adjudication efficiency, remains to be seen.”
EB-5 attorney Rohit Turkhud cautions against a possible perception that discrimination might increase in the U.S., which could make some investors avoid migrating until the “dust settles.” However, he does expect the U.S. to remain “the country of choice for academic pursuits and entrepreneurial talent and opportunities.” Also, the EB-5 visa lawyer says the EB-5 visa will continue offering the best opportunities for migration to the U.S., particularly for Indian and Chinese investors.
Increasing demand will continue driving interest in the EB-5 program
There is a consensus that EB-5 investors, especially those from India and China, will continue to favor the EB-5 investor visa as a primary pathway to live in the U.S.
EB-5 attorney Phuong Le of KLDP says foreign investor confidence in the program has increased now that the Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA), a significant regulatory reform aimed at enhancing the integrity and efficiency of the EB-5 program, has been fully applied. “2025 will be the year that EB-5 in the RIA era will peak. The first two years saw a lot of people cautiously tiptoe back in to test the waters, unsure what the market was, what the demand was at $800k, and whether they could raise money. All that’s been affirmatively answered.”
In addition, Le expects two issues to consolidate next year and drive demand: the interest of foreign residents already living in the U.S. under non-immigration status and the focus on the EB-5 projects’ flexibility and repayment capacities.
“One major tectonic shift is that the biggest EB-5 market isn’t China, India, or any overseas market. It’s the U.S. The corollary of this is that investors go direct at greater amounts than ever before, and it’s possible to do large-scale raises even without agents. That was unthinkable even two years ago,” Le adds.
Meanwhile, U.S. EB-5 lawyer Edward Beshara anticipates that Indian and Chinese “non-immigrant foreign nationals already in the U.S. for longer than 90 days” will continue choosing set-aside categories, such as rural and infrastructure projects, for their concurrent filings.
Concurrent filing is a process through which individuals already in the U.S. under another immigration visa can request to adjust their status to obtain conditional permanent residency while they apply for the EB-5 visa.
As for project and EB-5 investment preferences, Le expects “the capability to repay them early” to drive investor interest next year: “The conversation between rural vs HUA projects will shift to focusing on what projects will be able to repay investors on time or earlier than their competitors. People haven’t quite grasped that they can be fully repaid even if they haven’t even completed the green card process. Once they do, we expect the conversation to be much different. There will also be a focus on projects that are able to provide creative, investor-friendly solutions, such as RC loans, SDIRAs, etc. The ultimate winners in EB-5 will likely be able to marry those two concepts and accelerate.”
However, Cheng from AIIA cautions that a visa backlog for Chinese and Indian petitioners for applications in the set-asides categories is to be expected.
“Should that come to be, enthusiasm for EB-5 in these countries will most certainly take a hit. Whether this dip in demand can be partially mitigated by the surge in investors coming from Taiwan and South Korea has yet to be determined.”
USCIS performance is expected to influence processing times and waiting lists
The leadership changes in the White House and Congress will have ripple effects that will influence USCIS procedures, says Kyle Walker from Green Card Fund.
“USCIS priorities under a new administration could alter processing times. While State Department policies may tighten non-immigrant visa issuance, increasing barriers for some immigrants but enhancing the EB-5 visa’s appeal. Potential retrogression for High-Unemployment Areas (HUA) and Rural TEAs could lead investors to reconsider project choices. To navigate these shifts, EB-5 stakeholders must stay agile and informed while the industry works proactively with policymakers to ensure positive outcomes for global investors,” Walker says.
Meanwhile, Turkhud expects consequences due to “attrition in federal employees including at the USCIS and the State Department.”
Immigration attorney Robert C. Divine cautions against increasing scrutiny of the source of funds, prolonged vetting of visa/adjustment applicants “with possible bars of applicants from Islamic countries,” and possible waiting lists emerging for investors in high unemployment area projects as USCIS approves more petitions; the “implementation of innocent investor protections under Subsection (M) arising from terminated regional centers or debarred NCEs/JCEs; and “possible USCIS auditing of promoters and their I-956K filings and NCE agreements and compensation disclosures.”
Regarding USCIS’s interpretation of EB-5 regulations, Cheng from AIIA concludes that the 2-year sustainment period will continue to be a point of contention next year, which led AIIA to file a lawsuit against USCIS.
“Should the 2-year sustainment period be repealed, it will cause great uncertainty for existing investors and likely make the EB-5 program far less appealing for prospective investors.”
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