What will happen with the EB-5 visa program following the Republicans’ comeback, with Donald J. Trump winning the U.S. presidential election? The election results showed a clean sweep in key battleground states, particularly concerning U.S. immigration.
Opinions among EB-5 attorneys vary regarding the potential impact of Trump’s second administration on the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program. Some say significant changes may occur, while others downplay any direct impact.
How Trump’s presidency could be positive for the EB-5 industry
Those who view Trump’s new presidency positively for the EB-5 visa program cite his past support for real estate investments and tax cuts for high-net-worth individuals, which could ensure the program’s continuity and maintain investor interest.
“I don’t believe the EB-5 program would be meaningfully affected,” said immigration attorney Carolyn Lee from Carolyn Lee, PLLC. “Under President Trump’s initial term, investment immigration experienced fewer restrictions even during the pandemic. So, I’m cautiously optimistic that under his second term, there would be neutral to even perhaps favorable treatment of EB-5 relatively.”
EB-5 immigration attorney Rick Gump, founder of the Law Offices of Richard A. Gump, Jr., says that a second Trump Administration that focuses on job creation and boosting the economy could benefit the EB-5 visa program.
“I understand that President-Elect Trump has a transition team already in place that includes seasoned politicians and businesspeople,” he said. “Given the demographic scope of the victory that includes Hispanics and other new American groups, I am hopeful the team will seize the opportunity to separate the border issues from the chance to utilize legal immigration to increase jobs for Americans, the forefront of which should be EB-5 visas. Congress should be lobbied immediately to increase EB-5 visas and speed up processing. While Republicans in general are considered anti-immigration, they are decisively determined to enhance job creation and boost the economy – hence part of the solution is EB-5.”
In an emailed statement, Klasko Immigration Law Partners, LLP, says: “During the prior Trump Administration, the EB-5 Program remained largely unaffected by his immigration policies, but processing times were significantly longer. While a second Trump Administration’s potential reduction of tax liabilities for high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) could attract more EB-5 investors, processing delays at USCIS and the Department of State could put off potential investors. EB-5 investors, like other immigrant visa applicants, will also face additional scrutiny at consular interviews.”
How Trump’s presidency could have a concerning impact on the EB-5 program
Other attorneys are concerned about potential adverse effects. They warn that his administration may create backlogs due to stringent interpretations of legal provisions by adjudication officers. Other attorneys express concern about radical policy changes and their economic implications.
Immigration attorney Robert Cornish Jr. explains that President Trump could change the program. “There will be a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner with significantly different regulatory and enforcement priorities,” he said.
“Included in these priorities will likely be providing market access to investment products to the greater population, which, of course, includes clarity in the digital assets area. A significantly less activist SEC is coming.”
And there might be more changes, he adds.
“But what may also be on the horizon is a wholesale examination as to whether there is even a need to define ‘accreditor investors’ for the purpose of excluding others from market access, which could have profound effects on the EB-5 program. On the flip side, given the xenophobia that may pervade in the new administration’s immigration agenda, there could be an increased role of CIFUS in large real estate deals involving EB-5 or frankly no oversight at all. Whatever the case, the gutting of USCIS paused by the Biden administration in 2021 will resume in 2025. I would not expect any wholesale changes in the EB-5 program itself.”
Tahmina Watson from Watson Immigration Law added: “A second Trump Administration could reintroduce uncertainty for H-1B visas, much like the period from 2017 to 2020, when many H-1B applications were denied,” she said. “This led clients to turn toward EB-5 visas, and I anticipate renewed interest in EB-5 applications should similar policies resurface.”
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