New EB-5 data shows a significant surge in demand for EB-5 visas, particularly in the Targeted Employment Area (TEA) categories, according to USCIS in response to a Freedom of Information Act request from AIIA. This increase may lead to longer wait times for applicants in rural and HUA categories.
The data, which was obtained through litigation led by The Galati Law Firm, can help prospective EB-5 investors assess the “‘invisible backlog’ that exists in the set aside categories and even inform those who have already invested in the set aside categories to estimate the number of people in line in front of them,” according to AIIA.
Key findings include: Demand for EB-5 visas has risen since April 2024 across all TEA categories and country groups; Rural TEA visa demand consistently surpasses that of high-unemployment (HUA) visas; and China exhibits the strongest growth in demand.
As of January 2025, data indicates that there is approximately ten times the demand for HUA visas compared to the annual supply, and four times the demand for Rural visas. This overwhelming demand is particularly pronounced from major markets like China and India.
The FOIA data also revealed that 351 HUA and 1,126 rural petitions had been approved as of January 2025.
“That’s likely too low for a year with 2,200 HUA and 4,400 rural visas available, and considering that visa interviews take months to schedule,” writes business plan writer Suzanne Lazicki. “If there aren’t enough applicants to claim available FY2025 set-aside visas, that means that the visa bulletin gets to stay “current” for a longer time (good news for concurrent filing), but some set-aside numbers will be permanently lost, Rest of World applicants will get more time to accumulate and crowd out China/India applicants, and expected visa wait times will lengthen.”
How can potential EB-5 investors use this information for their application?
According to the analysis, an Indian investor considering a TEA investment today should anticipate a wait of five to ten years or more for a visa, given the volume of rural and HUA investors already in the queue. AIIA advises applicants to consider mitigating these wait times by looking into the Unreserved visa category after securing their first I-526E approval.
“However, a TEA investor may also choose after I-526E approval to be allocated an Unreserved visa. The Unreserved category also has backlogs, but the Unreserved pre-RIA backlog for India-born petitioners may be cleared within 5 years – making it possibly the soonest-available visa for India-born investors in 2025 regardless of whether they choose to invest in a rural or high unemployment TEA,” according to AIIA.
This advice similarly applies to Chinese investors who have already invested in HUA and Rural projects. AIIA states, “If the China pre-RIA Unreserved backlog may possibly be cleared in about 8 years, then the Unreserved category may also be a fallback for China-born TEA investors. The backlog situation and visa wait times for China and India TEA investors can also be improved if many Rest of World TEA investors elect to take Unreserved visas following I-526E approval. Otherwise, if TEA investors from China and India were actually limited by TEA category and country caps, then wait times would be astronomical, given that pipeline visa demand from China and India far exceeds 7% of rural and high unemployment visas.”
Lazicki also notes that regional centers must confront the reality that the upcoming ten-plus years of HUA visas and four-plus years of Rural visas have already been sold, despite a significant Unreserved backlog remaining.
“Unless and until visa relief is possible, what’s left to offer is a chance for Rest-of-World EB-5 investors to cut the queue in front of earlier but cap-limited China-born and India-born investors. Keeping the ‘immigrant’ in ‘immigrant investment’ will require hard work for visa relief,” she concludes.
Previous data released through FOIA to WR Immigration in September and AIIA had already showed that overall demand for HUA and Rural was high.
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