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How should a mainland China-born EB-5 investor estimate how long they need to wait before a visa number is available?

Many people are talking about the waiting time of 16.2 years for mainland China-born EB-5 investors, which was given by Charlie Oppenheim during the recent IIUSA conference. Based on the latest visa bulletin, the cutoff date for EB-5 investors from mainland China is Nov. 1, 2014. How is the 16.2-year waiting period calculated?

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    Bernard P Wolfsdorf

    Immigration Attorney
    Answered on

    Mr. Oppenheim is the person with the most knowledge and the most information and we have to rely on his guestimates. Note he makes it very clear this is merely an estimate since there are too many variables. Right now we hoping that one of the good bills goes through, such as Senator Graham''s bill.

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    Salvatore Picataggio

    Immigration Attorney
    Answered on

    I think Charlie is anticipating the retrogression to increase over the next several years.

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    Stephen Berman

    Immigration Attorney
    Answered on

    It is calculated by the number of pending applications and the number of visas that can be issued per year.

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    Lynne Feldman

    Immigration Attorney
    Answered on

    It is calculated by how many people ahead of you and how many are available to Chinese investors each year.

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    Charles Foster

    Immigration Attorney
    Answered on

    The critical factor is the rate of advancement on the visa bulletin on a monthly basis and the number of filed cases after the current priority date. It is impossible to predict with precision the waiting period but 10 years or longer may be close. Furthermore, Congress in the interim at some point may increase visa numbers and/or pass legislation to clarify that only the investor and not their dependents should be counted against the quota.

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    BoBi Ahn

    Immigration Attorney
    Answered on

    The current processing time for I-526 immigrant investor petition is approximately two to three years. Once approved, Chinese nationals have a waiting period until the priority date is current, so around five years before Chinese nationals can proceed to file for immigrant visas at the present processing timeline. This is subject to change based on retrogression or faster movement on any given month.

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